The 2026 Election - Alan Osborne's Guide

Alan Osborne, retired planner.  24 Sept 2026.

Alan has many years of experience as a senior Municipal Planner in both Provincial and Municipal Governments.  We are pleased to post his insights into the current election issues.

Note: Alan has added a 3-minute sequel to this item at the bottom of this page.

If you have 7 minutes I can give an overview of a couple of the main issues in the North Saanich election and some ideas on what to look out for.

I worked as a community planner for a number of BC municipalities, and I also worked with the BC government, where I helped develop much of the current municipal legislation. I’ve lived in North Saanich for 35 years and served on various advisory committees, including ones that helped develop the new Official Community Plan (OCP). I’m going to limit this to planning and taxes. Of course there are many other issues that may be important to you (and me), such as supporting agriculture and climate change, but in 7 minutes that’s all I can cover!

SETTING THE STAGE

In the last (2022) election there was also a lot of discussion about the OCP and housing. For those who are new to the community, that election was essentially a referendum on the past Council’s efforts to review and update the OCP. Many residents had expressed concerns with the review, particularly the proposals that were pushed by the Vancouver-based consultants.

The in-coming Council had a strong mandate to change course and ensure that the new OCP reflected the priorities expressed by residents, not consultants. New planning staff were hired, new advisory committees were created, and there were additional consultations with residents. The new OCP was adopted in July 2025.

The OCP review took longer than hoped, 4 years. This was partly due to the NDP Government, who threw a “wrench in the works”. They passed various pieces of legislation to promote more housing options. A couple of the changes were particularly relevant.

First, the legislation allowed the Minister of Housing and Municipal Affairs to set housing targets for each municipality. North Saanich was told it needed to “deliver” 419 additional housing units by 2029 and 2,493 units by 2044. To put this in context, there are currently about 5,000 households.

The new OCP complies with the housing targets. It steers new housing to areas that either have additional sewer and water capacity or where the infrastructure could be expanded at the least cost. It avoids allowing new housing in areas that would be very expensive to service.

The other key aspect of Provincial legislation worth mentioning is that it eliminates traditional single family neighbourhoods. It overrides local autonomy at different levels.  For all municipalities, the legislation requires that suites and other secondary housing options be permitted in single family neighbourhoods. For neighbourhoods within an urban containment area it requires up to 4 housing units be permitted per lot. And, if a neighbourhood has frequent bus service (every 15 minutes), the municipality is required to allow 6 housing units on each lot.

No allowance was given for municipalities to restrict densities in cases where there isn’t enough water or sewer capacity, or it would be very costly to expand the infrastructure.  Various municipalities raised this issue with the Minister but the response essentially was “that’s your problem.”

The Minister was given the power to hire a “housing advisor” if she is concerned that housing targets are not being met. So far she has appointed a housing advisor for three municipalities: Oak Bay, West Vancouver and North Saanich. For Oak Bay and West Vancouver the housing advisor was a retired municipal staff person, who had a practical understanding of how municipalities work. For North Saanich she hired CBRE, the world’s largest commercial real estate and investment firm. As expected, the reports reflect this difference in perspective. In June the Minister sent the CBRE report to North Saanich Council, along with a letter setting out numerous changes she expected to see.

One problem with the legislation is that it makes the municipality responsible to “deliver” housing units at specified rates to meet its “targets”. But while Council can plan for more housing it has no control over when it’s actually built. Real estate markets have “booms” and “busts”; in some years very few houses are built and in other years there’s tons. The fact is that the new North Saanich OCP allows for hundreds of new houses to be built whenever the owners are ready to do so.

It’s fair to ask why the Minister didn’t wait for a few years before coming to the conclusion she needed to hire a housing advisor to look into the North Saanich situation. The ink on the new OCP was barely dry! Many residents are convinced that she was acting on complaints by a few individuals and developers whose proposals weren’t approved.

A number of residents have criticized the CBRE report, including the way it was prepared and the secrecy behind who was interviewed. They also pointed out important factual errors.

The Minister accepted all of CBRE’s findings and recommendations, including those that called for massive amounts of new housing, many times more than is needed to meet her own housing targets! Her letter gave Council 30 days to respond, after which she said she intended to issue “directives” to force Council to make the changes.

After hearing from many residents, Council did respond to the Minister’s letter.  Council’s response was long and detailed, but it essentially said “this is a case of government overreach, and is based on a deeply flawed report”. As yet the Minister has not responded or issued any directives. A provincial election is also now under way, so nothing more will happen for at least a couple of months.

 SO WHAT ARE THE ISSUES IS THIS ELECTION?

The shadow of the NDP Government hangs over the North Saanich election, and will be a big part of the discussions. The Minister has shown that she wants to override the OCP and impose her own vision on the community. For some neighbourhoods her changes would be modest, for others more substantial, and for some (like Dean Park) they would be dramatic. Dean Park would go from essentially single family housing to a density of 4 units per lot (and up to 6 units per lot if bus service increases).

So who do you vote for in this situation? When looking at candidates I would suggest there are 3 key main considerations.

1. Which candidates are more likely to honour the new OCP and stand up to the Minister?

Despite the fact that the new OCP complies with the Minister’s housing targets there will probably be candidates who will want to use the pressure from the Minister as an excuse to make changes. They will say that it’s better to make changes voluntarily rather than have the Minister impose her will on North Saanich. I’d suggest listening carefully as to which candidates will honour the new OCP, and stand up to the Minister.  If they advocate changing the OCP, ask them to be specific about what changes they support.

2. Promises of affordable housing

Be skeptical of any candidate who promises “affordable housing”. It doesn’t take a genius to know the numbers don’t work; that North Saanich is an attractive place to live and that means higher prices. It’s unfortunate but no developer can build housing in North Saanich that will be sufficiently “affordable” for the many local workers and young families who want to live here.

“Affordable” housing is defined as 30% of gross income. So for someone looking to buy even an above average income may not be enough. The least expensive house for sale in all of North Saanich is currently listed at almost $900,000. With 10% down, the buyer of that house would need an income of almost $200,000/year to support the $4,800/month mortgage. And that’s a “fixer upper”!

Building affordable rental housing is also a challenge in North Saanich because land prices are high and infrastructure needs to be built/expanded. Rents would have to reflect the developer’s higher costs.

Past and current Councils have pursued “affordable housing” opportunities, and have successfully secured a small number of units. Such opportunities are hard to find because they often need some combination of: an owner willing to sell land for less than market price; federal and/or provincial subsidies; and the municipality giving the developer breaks on the usual fees and charges (e.g. not paying for infrastructure).  

Some candidates may claim that they have assurances from developers that they can build affordable housing in North Saanich. Ask what guarantee we would have that the actual selling price would be what the developer promises. Past developers have promised affordable housing then sold the houses for much higher prices.  Be skeptical, ask that the numbers be shared publicly to see if they are credible. As the saying goes…Fooled me once, shame on you, fooled me twice, shame on me!

3. Taxes - “No municipality can grow its way to lower taxes”

Now, what about your property taxes? North Saanich already has an “infrastructure deficit”, meaning our current water, drainage and sewer systems all need expensive upgrades. At the rate we’re growing there will also be pressure to expand the Panorama Recreation Centre and other services. And, North Saanich has reached the population when there is usually a shift from volunteer to full-time fire-fighters. So property taxes increases will be hard to avoid.

The new OCP tries to minimize the property tax impacts of growth by focussing new housing in areas where infrastructure already exists or can be upgraded at the lowest cost. Be wary of candidates who say we also need housing in areas outside of those identified in the new OCP.

It’s important to be aware that Provincial legislation does not allow municipalities to charge developers the full cost of infrastructure. Taxpayers will have to pay the rest. Allowing development in new areas not already serviced will increase taxes. For example, there is a proposal for a 900 unit development on McTavish Rd, far beyond existing services. If a candidate uses that as an example of an opportunity to secure significant housing, including subsidized housing, ask them how much North Saanich taxpayers will have to pay to provide water, sewer and drainage services to that development. If they say there won’t be an impact then they don’t understand the legislation.

Be very skeptical of a candidate who says that new housing will not raise your taxes. There’s a saying in the “municipal world” …. “No municipality can grow its way to lower taxes.”

Over the next few weeks listen carefully to the candidates and, if the opportunity allows, ask them these questions.

Here is a sequel to Alan's article above:

2026 North Saanich Election - 3 Minute Guide to Candidates

I’ve had a lot of positive feedback on my “7 Minute Guide to the Issues”, and a number of folks asked me to go further, so here’s a 3 minute guide to the actual candidates.

Based on what I heard at various “meet and greets”, the All Candidates Meeting and what friends and neighbours have told me, three issues are top-of-mind: (1) Is the Housing Minister going to over-ride our community plan (OCP) and force masses of housing on us? (2) What’s with all the in-fighting and dysfunction on Council? and (3) How could this election affect our taxes?

And the most general common comment was “All the candidates are saying the same things, they all support the community plan, they all support agriculture, blah, blah, blah.. How can we choose between them?”

Here’s how I see those issues and the candidates.

1. Who really supports the Community Plan and will fight the hardest to defend it against the Minister’s efforts to over-ride it? I’d say it’s the 3 incumbent Councillors who voted for it: Irene McConkey, Sanjiv and Christine Marshall. They were strong supporters throughout. The other 3 Councillors (Jack McClintock, Phil DiBattista and Celia Stock) voted against the OCP. They justified voting against it because of how it treated the airport surplus lands. But that’s pretty weak, because the OCP acknowledges that North Saanich doesn’t have any jurisdiction and only offers recommendations to the Airport Authority. It makes me think they are more open to changing to the OCP to appease the Minister, but aren’t willing to say what changes.

While all the other candidates for Council say they support the OCP, one stands out. From what I’ve seen of Greg Warner, he would vigorously defend the OCP. I also think Council would benefit from his strong business and farming background. He’s impressive. And his commitment is real; without his generosity we wouldn’t have a new Food Hub.

2. Dysfunction on Council. I was at a “meet and greet” yesterday and this was a major topic of discussion. There were lots of questions…Why was it happening and more importantly, how can we stop it? McConkey, Sanjiv, Marshall and Warren all gave good answers and it was clear they each have ideas in how Councils can function as an effective team. It was clear that they get along and I suspect they’d work well together. Fewer “in camera” (secret) meetings, and much less money spent on lawyers!

In any Council, the Mayor sets the tone and is expected to mold Council into a “team”. Sure it can be a challenge, but our current Mayor, Peter Jones, clearly hasn’t been able to. He needs to own that failure. Could he really do better next time? Unlikely. The fact that not one of the current Council members supports him speaks volumes.

Jack McClintock not only voted against the OCP, but he voted against the others on many other issues, especially around agriculture. You could say he’s “independent”, or you could say he’s a “lone wolf”. Either way, he hasn’t shown that he’s a team builder.

McConkey, Sanjiv, Marshall and Warner each say they’d prefer to work with the other Mayoral candidate, Felice Mazzoni. If we want less secrecy and dysfunction, it makes sense to go with the folks who want to work together.

North Saanich is on course for a big showdown with the NDP (if they get back in) and we need a strong team to defend North Saanich, not a Council that’s fighting amongst themselves.

3. Related to the above, our future tax bills will be significantly affected by the costs of infrastructure and lawyer’s fees. A big reason to support the current OCP is that it directs new housing to areas with existing water, sewer and drainage. Opening up the OCP could bring enormous infrastructure costs. While larger developments can be required to pay for a good portion of their new infrastructure, Provincial legislation exempts smaller scale developments, such as those less than 4 units. So, for example, if duplexes and triplexes were permitted in Dean Park and the Southeast Quadrant, the developers would pay nothing and North Saanich taxpayers would be stuck with all of the infrastructure costs!

Dysfunctional Councils not only get less done but they also cost taxpayers. Council spent over $500,000 in legal fees this year alone, and a good chunk of that is due to Council infighting.

So if keeping taxes in check is a priority, then I suggest we want people who want to work as a team and will vigorously defend our OCP.

Given what I’ve read, heard and seen, at this time I can only “endorse” 5 candidates: Irene McConkey, Sanjiv, Christine Marshall, Greg Warner and Felice Mazzoni.

I did try to round the list out, for all 7 positions, but that would mean choosing candidates that haven’t shown me enough to earn my vote. Some are very inexperienced, and I think they should get more involved in community issues or committees and run again in the future. Some have ties to the development industry and, while that can be of some benefit, it makes me nervous that their bias to building housing may end up costing taxpayers more for expanded infrastructure.

One more week to go, but for now I think it’s best to be strategic, or tactical, and only vote for the ones you really want. Sometimes your “throwaway” candidates get elected and your preferred ones lose!

I’ve spent decades working with local and provincial politicians around BC. I can only offer my assessment. To those I can’t support at this time, thank you for putting yourself out there. I have a huge amount of respect for people willing to run for office. Let’s keep it respectful out there!